The 90th Annual Academy Awards ceremony is tonight and and the crop of nominees for Oscars 2018 is just a tad different, perhaps echoing the changing landscapes of Hollywood. There are not one, but TWO genre films nominated for Best Picture (Get Out and The Shape of Water), and diversity continues to improve this year.
Last year after Moonlight became only the second film from an African American director to win Best Picture, Get Out‘s Jordan Peele is nominated for Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture this year. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) is likewise only the fifth female Best Director nominee and only Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker, 2010) has won. Celebrating a year in film that will unfortunately be remembered for the Harvey Weinstein scandal and the #MeToo movement, female nominees and strong performances are all over the show. It’ll be interesting to hear how host Jimmy Kimmel handles the Weinstein-sized elephant in the room.
But let’s face it, you’re here for predictions, so let’s get to it… if you’re filling out a ballot, I nailed ALL the major awards last year, so take that under consideration…
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who should win: Call Me By Your Name by James Ivory, adapted from the book of the same name, is an amazing love story, and coming of age story that blends cultures, languages and expectations.
What will win: Call Me By Your Name.
Best Original Screenplay
Who should win: Get Out by Jordan Peele is a frightening horror film that offers even scarier and realistic social commentary. The “sunken place” is the thing of nightmares and should be recognized. Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird was an amazing coming of age story that managed to give full respect to both its young and adult characters.
What will win: If Guillermo Del Toro wasn’t standing in the way of Best Director, I thought Gerwig would win that, but the former indie darling wrote a tremendous screenplay there. There’s a chance Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri steals it, but I think they go Gerwig for writing.
Best Supporting Actress
Who should win: The ladies kicked ass this year and there are 5 legit candidates here. In the battle of angry moms, I preferred Laurie Metcalf’s layered performance from Lady Bird over Allison Janney’s full on “worst mom ever” from I, Tonya.
Who will win: Janney is a shoo-in.
Best Supporting Actor
Who should win: I loved Richard Jenkins subtle performance from The Shape Of Water and I didn’t see The Florida Project, but I’m a huge Willem Dafoe fan.
Who will win: Another easy call, as Sam Rockwell from Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is a lock.
Who should win: It is baffling and annoying how little Sally Hawkin’s performance in The Shape Of Water is mentioned as I challenge anyone to find a braver turn from an actress this year.
Who will win: Frances McDormand is a consensus favorite for another strong turn for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri so put money on her, but watch for a Margot Robbie surprise upset.
Who should win: Look, I can’t lie… Daniel Day-Lewis made a movie about making dresses into a riveting and fascinating drama in Phantom Thread, but Timothee Chalamet was simply unbelievable in Call Me By Your Name. You felt every emotion from his character.
Who will win: It seems Darkest Hour was made for no reason other than to win Gary Oldman an Oscar, which upsets me because while he’s deserved it in the past, this is a total Oscar bait performance. Oldman will win, but I’m hoping Chalamet steals it.
Who should win: Guillermo Del Toro. In another year I’d have bet my house on Gerwig, but GDT created a sci-fi horror love story with understated yet loud socio-political views that had the world ready for woman on fish-man love.
Who will win: All hail GDT.
Who will win: The Shape Of Water was a transcendent film that is a royal tour de force of filmmaking, writing acting, effects, etc. It is clearly the best film of 2017, in my opinion.
What will win: Only once — Silence of the Lambs at the 1992 Oscars — has a horror/genre film won Best Picture. The horror fan in me is rooting so hard for The Shape Of Water and Get Out and while The Shape of Water can win, I think the safer, more likely bet is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Heart says The Shape Of Water, but I’m gonna go with my head and hope I’m wrong.
The 90th Annual Academy Awards ceremony will air live tonight on ABC starting at 8:00 EST. See the full list of nominees here.
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